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14 December 2012

Ricominciare da zero con il dibattito sul clima


Paul Gilding chiede di ricominciare da zero con il dibattito sul clima, sostenendo che non otterremo mai un accordo globale sul cambiamento climatico e che è una perdita di tempo pensare che lo otterremo mai.

E' ottimista sul fatto che il mondo farà quello che è necessario fare, con le industrie a livello internazionale che cominciano a vedere il problema del cambiamento climatico in modo molto più serio.

Ma Paul ritiene che sarà fatto all'ultimo momento e dice che le industrie devono prepararsi per questo periodo di crisi, che lui chiama "La grande distruzione".


Paul Gilding is calling for a complete reset on the climate debate, saying we will not get a global agreement on climate change and it's a waste of time to think we ever will.

He is optimistic that the world will do what needs to be done eventually, as international business is beginning to take the issue of climate change much more seriously.
But Paul reckons it will be done at the last minute and says business needs to be prepared for that time of crisis—what he calls the Great Disruption.

1 comment:

  1. I have read Paul Gilding's book The Great Disruption (last year) and I thought it was very good. (good analyses, good data, good arguments and certainly extensive experience on the part of the author) But I wasn't fully convinced by his argument at some point in the book that "at the last minute" (which would come in not more than another six years from now) mankind will see that it has no choice but to act, and that THEREFORE it will act, and effectively so. On the other hand there is now enough historical evidence showing that mega U.N. Conferences tend to produce more heat than light and more wheel spinning than traction. So a re-think about what a concrete program of climate action should or could look like, and who would (or will) implement it, is probably a good idea. (but not a reopening of the entire "climate debate" since the "scientific debate" at least, is mostly over, even though more and more evidence and analysis will of course certainly continue to come in; and, moreover, the correct and already known general messages still need to be spread to a much greater number of people) But again, where will the "reset" that Paul Gilding mentions come from, and which actors (public, private or civil society) (or all of them) should or will take the lead on developing a workable and effective program or programs? (whether a world program or a regional program or various national or corporate programs, or all of these) Or will an effective but highly decentralized program without any particular leadership suddenly materialize out of thin air or simply building on whatever (many and diverse) initiatives are already taking place? That approach (to the extent its an approach at all and is not just a form of laissez-faire) seems a bit risky to me. i.e. something great could happen or nothing could happen and things would only get worse. But since Paul Gilding generally speaking knows what he's talking about I certainly would like to hear more about what he thinks "a complete reset on the climate debate" might look like, and how "business will be prepared for that time of crisis which he calls the Great Disruption". In other words, the idea is probably not that bad, but MANY MORE SPECIFICS, please. (and if not, then why not, a bit more clearly)