Da Resource Insight
La deferenza accordata a ogni nuova predizione di disponibilità energetiche future da agenzie governative internazionali e dalle principali compagnie petrolifere sembrano essere ben maggiori di quanto si faceva una volta per l'oracolo di Delfi nell'antica Grecia. I record di quell'antico oracolo sono stati perduti ma possiamo controllare quelli di questi oracoli energetici moderni.
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Guardando alle previsioni fatte nel 2000 dalle agenzie statunitense EIA, IEA e NIC, diventa ovvio che tirare una linea diritta che va verso l'alto non fa diventare una previsione magicamente realizzata. Tutte sono state nettamente fuori bersaglio. La previsione di ExxonMobil più vecchia disponibile in rete risale al 2006. Anche questa era totalmente sbagliata.
The reverence accorded each new forecast of future energy supplies from
international and government agencies and from major oil companies seems
to go far beyond that accorded to the oracle of Delphi in ancient
Greece. That oracle's record may be lost in the mists of time, but we
can check the record for these modern energy oracles.
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Looking back at forecasts made in the year 2000 by the U.S. EIA, the
IEA, and the NIC, it becomes obvious that drawing an upward line on a
chart does not make an oil forecast magically come true. All were
considerably off the mark. ExxonMobil's oldest forecast available online
dates back to 2006. It, too, has proved wide of the mark.
Are they: a) making mistakes or are they b) purposefully cooking the numbers; or are they c) doing a bit of both according to the specific circumstances or contingency (political, economic and other) or d) all of the above.
ReplyDeleteAnyone who answered d) probably deserves an A+ (but of course it's a bit hard to read intentions so we probably will never know for sure) (until it's definitely TOO LATE to make any real difference, which is another likely basic purpose of such "magic forecasts")